У мінусі на трильйони: витрати росії на псевдореспубліки «л/днр» зростають на фоні бюджетної кризи

Автор Philosof
У мінусі на трильйони: витрати росії на псевдореспубліки «л/днр» зростають на фоні бюджетної кризи

Посилення тиску на енергетичний сектор, зростання дефіциту бюджету, скорочення іноземних інвестицій, витрачання резервів поглиблюють економічну рецесію в росії у 2023 році.

Ембарго ЄС на сиру нафту і нафтопродукти та цінові обмеження G7, а також відмова європейських країн від російського газу призвели до падіння позитивного сальдо торговельного балансу рф, який у I кварталі 2023 року скоротився до 29 млрд доларів — найнижчого рівня за два роки. Загальний профіцит рахунку поточних операцій також скоротився, склавши всього 18,6 млрд доларів в 1 кварталі 2023 року — на 50% менше, ніж у IV кварталі 2022 року. Ця тенденція також відбивається у зниженні доходів бюджету від нафти та газу, які впали на 45%.

Для фінансування дефіцитного бюджету російська влада змушена використовувати кошти Фонду національного добробуту (ФНД). Минулого року уряд залучив з фонду 3 трлн руб. Враховуючи, що понад 40% активів ФНД – не ліквідні, його запаси можуть повністю вичерпатися до кінця року.    
Втрати не компенсували ні одноразові надходження з «Газпрому» (1,2 трлн руб спецподатку і 600 млрд руб дивідендів), ні продаж внутрішніх облігацій.

Станом на 31 березня, дефіцит федерального бюджету рф становив 2,4 трлн рублів, або ж 82% від цільового показника російського уряду протягом року. Очікується, що 2023 року дефіцит бюджету досягне 7-8% ВВП.

Рецесія та погіршення зовнішньополітичної кон’юнктури зменшують доходи путінського режиму, який змушений збільшувати видатки на війну. Зростання дефіциту бюджету впливає на спроможність агресора фінансувати бойові дії.

Разом з цим, витрати росії на псевдореспубліки «л/днр» тільки зростають і стали для неї фінансовим, політичним та дипломатичним тягарем.

Подальші санкційні заходи суттєво посилять тиск на кремль та обмежать його можливості акумулювати доходи. Зменшення фінансових надходжень врешті зведе нанівець загарбницькі плани рф.

Автор Philosof

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