Спостерігається тенденція до подальшого погіршення соціально-економічної ситуації в окупованих районах Донецької і Луганської областей. Спроби переорієнтації збуту «ЛДНР» сировини і готової продукції на ринок РФ не привели до поліпшення ситуації і відновленню стабільного функціонування бюджетоутворюючих галузей на окупованих територіях.
Найбільш це відчувається у вуглевидобувній галузі, оскільки прийняті українською стороною заходи змусили ватажків «республік» і їх російських кураторів кардинально переглянути очікувані показники на більш песимістичні. При цьому, єдиним напрямом реалізації вугілля, споживачем якого раніше була Україна, залишилася Російська Федерація. Збільшення вугільного експорту в РФ підноситься ватажками «ЛДНР» як результат успішної кооперації «ДНР» і «ЛНР» з РФ, але фінансова віддача такої співпраці значно нижче в порівнянні з українськими споживачами.
Причина в тому, що реалізація більшої частини видобутого вугілля російським посередникам відбувається за безцінь, по $ 30-35, при собівартості його видобутку $ 67 за тонну. Так, при закупівлі вугілля ТОВ «Газ – Альянс» (підконтрольний С.Курченко, є імпортером 75% вугілля з «ЛНР») ціна однієї тонни енергетичного вугілля становить $ 32.
Подальший перепродаж російськими посередниками вугілля з «ЛДНР» третім країнам здійснюється вже за світовими ринковими цінами в діапазоні від $ 100 до $ 160 за тонну.
При цьому, ватажкам «ЛДНР» не варто сподіватися на збільшення виручки від продажу вугілля росіянам для латання «республіканських» соціальних дірок, оскільки Енергетична стратегія РФ до 2035 року передбачає лише подальше зменшення обсягів споживання вугілля в РФ і зростання експорту вугілля власного видобутку для підтримки власної галузі (2013 – 153 млн т., 2014 – 156 млн т., 2016 – 165 млн т., в 2017 очікується – 175 млн т., а в 2025 – 197 млн т.). А з огляду на обмежені логістичні можливості Чорноморсько-Азовського портів РФ і залізничних переходів на неконтрольованій ділянці російсько-українського кордону, вугілля з шахт окупованого Донбасу за ринковими цінами навряд чи когось зацікавить.
Крім того, з 2021 р очікується закриття всіх восьми вугільних енергоблоків російської Новочеркаської ГРЕС, яка є єдиним споживачем вугілля на півдні РФ (власник – ВАТ «Газпром»). Очікуваний додатковий профіцит вугілля – близько 3-4 млн т.
В результаті, навіть якщо реалізувати весь запланований «республіками» обсяг вугілля і продати його по «ринкових» цінами, які пропонують «братські російські» перекупники (по $ 30-35), коштів не вистачатиме навіть на виплату поточної заробітної плати шахтарям, не кажучи вже про погашення заборгованості по зарплаті, яка на сьогодні сягає кількох мільярдів російських рублів.
Philosof
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